Shot Down: A Syrian Air Force helicopter is destroyed after Israeli strikes against military targets across Syria in December Photo: Getty Images Shot Down: A Syrian Air Force helicopter is destroyed after Israeli strikes against military targets across Syria in December Photo: Getty Images

Double, double toil and trouble; 

Fire burn and cauldron bubble. 

—Act IV, Scene I, Macbeth, William Shakespeare

Some wars end, many do not, but, like passenger trains, they linger in the siding, lost in thought, waiting for the superfast express to pass.

Wars end conclusively when they get wrapped up in a formal peace treaty. The war in Ukraine and the rekindling of the Syrian war fall in the latter category of sub-plots that turned rabid from the lies enveloping them with the passage of time. From such a perspective, the Syrian crisis can be traced to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire by Britain and France through World War I by a secret pact known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916) defining their mutually agreed spheres of influence and control in an eventual partition of that empire that lasted almost 600 years.

The force that spearheaded the operation this month to seize Damascus, with Türkiye’s support, is called Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which means the “Mission to Liberate the Levant”. This must be properly understood while probing Türkiye’s motivations in launching such a “jihadi” operation to shake up the modern Syrian state that was founded in 1946 at the end of the French mandate.

The use of the medieval term “Levant” is a repudiation of the word Syria, which was a coinage under the French mandate. That is to say, HTS implicitly denies the existence of a Syrian nation state. The landmass called Syria is, in the HTS’ conception, a vast ungoverned land, a part of the Caliphate, which is open to reshaping to reflect the current realities on the ground.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan openly alluded to this while addressing a meeting of the ruling AKP party on December 13 when he said: “The cities that we call Aleppo, Idlib, Damascus and Raqqa will become our provinces, like Antep, Hatay and Urfa!” Erdogan believes he’s on the right side of history.

ice36 casinoThe year 2025 marks the centenary of the Treaty of Lausanne and its legal expiration, which Erdogan has often cited in his nationalistic rhetoric as an opportunity “to correct injustices done to Türkiye.”

The Treaty of Sèvres (1920) whereby the victorious Allied powers in World War I abolished the Ottoman Empire, punitively obliged the successor state of Türkiye to renounce all rights over Arab Asia and North Africa. And by the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) that followed from it, amongst other things, Eastern Anatolia became part of Türkiye, in exchange for its relinquishment of Ottoman-era claims to the oil-rich Arab lands. This is a slice of the Turkish people’s glorious history which the world may have forgotten but not the Turkish people. On every street and bylane of ancient Istanbul, the memory lingers. (For a masterly work on the subject, read David Fromkin’s A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East.)

The year 2025 marks the centenary of the Treaty of Lausanne and its legal expiration, which Erdogan has often cited in his nationalistic rhetoric as an opportunity “to correct injustices done to Türkiye.” In this revisionist history, the expiry of the Treaty of Lausanne could reopen the Turkish claims of having “special rights” to parts of Iraq and Syria—if not claims of outright sovereignty. Turkish officials have been coy about voicing these claims.

Erdogan, a shrewd politician, may even see advantages in playing up the latent nationalist sentiments in the Turkish psyche, which regards the creation of “artificial states” out of the Ottoman Empire as an act of revenge by Western powers against the Turkish caliphate—as reprisal for the Ottoman challenge to Christendom’s goal of ruling the world. Added to it is the xenophobic undercurrent that the Kurdish question is also a Western conspiracy to balkanise Turkiye.

Spectre of ‘All-Against-All’

The “jihadist” operation to force regime change in Damascus has shattered the illusion of stabilising Syria under Assad’s leadership. The collapse of the Assad government’s army has left three major groups vying for control of Syria—HTS, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, the ethnic Kurdish groups) and Turkish and Turkish-aligned Syrian rebel forces. While most Syrians are calling for unity, bringing together these groups and their interests will be a key challenge. More and more factors point to the gradual formation of an “all-against-all” conflict, going forward.

Contrary to the statements by the HTS leadership, widespread robberies and murders continue. Not only are the supporters of the Assad regime subjected to violence, but also the religious minorities—Alawites, Druze and Christians —who were previously guaranteed security. The point is HTS which was considered a Turkish proxy during the period of its stay in Idlib province, is coming on its own and its autonomy from Ankara will only grow—and, along with that, its authority will increase in the eyes of the Syrian people. It now has operational space and there is no need to hide its beliefs.

Another complication for Turkey is that HTS is actively cooperating with the Kurds. For HTS, its Kurdish connection is useful as a bargaining chip with the West.

What happened in Syria is not a revolution that might have legitimised the regime change but an implosion that was least expected. A limited HTS operation last month in the western province of Idlib to wrest control of the strategic town of Saraqib from the regime forces broke through the defence lines in the Hamdaniyya, New Aleppo, and Zahra axes in Aleppo’s western countryside and entered the city centre of Aleppo.

Saraqib is located strategically at the intersection of the M4 highway, which connects the capital Damascus to Aleppo, and the M5 highway, which links Latakia (Mediterranean coast where the Russian bases are located) to Aleppo. As the regime forces suffered heavy losses and withdrew from Saraqib, the defeat turned into a rout, prompting numerous regime loyalists to flee from Aleppo to Damascus. Once Aleppo fell, a domino effect began, as the regime forces collapsed in disarray and the gates of Damascus opened. Succinctly put, the HTS unexpectedly cut through the soft butter with a hot knife. The rest is history.

Suffice to say, Türkiye, a frontline state with a 900-km border with Syria, is going to be a consequential player in Syria. But its influence should not be exaggerated, although Türkiye’s ascendancy is not under any serious challenge from regional states as such.

Ankara and the three main Syrian groups in play are claiming that they prefer the pathway of dialogue and reconciliation, contrary to the apocalyptic prognosis that Syria’s existence as a sovereign state is in danger. They claim that the creation of a new interim government in Damascus will lead to the formation of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution that will be submitted to a national referendum determining the future path of political transformations in the direction of representational rule. Equally, we are led to believe that the HTS prefers to be a participant in the transition rather than an imposter that applied horrific tools of repression of “heretics” refined in the smithies of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS). The veracity of these claims remains untested. By March, the transitional government’s term ends.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s priority in the near term lies in the security sphere. With the collapse of the Syrian authority, Ankara now gets a free run to smash the Syrian Kurdish groups aligned to the PKK separatists inside Türkiye.

Türkiye is sure to exploit the window of opportunity here. Heavy fighting has been reported in the Kurdish areas in northern Syria along the Turkish border.

Riding Several Horses

Speaking on Turkish television on December 13, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan disclosed that Assad’s abdication came following direct pressure from Russia and Iran. According to Fidan’s narrative, Assad left power after receiving phone calls from his long-standing allies. If so, that would suggest a coordinated Turkish-Russian-Iranian diplomatic effort that reshaped Syria’s leadership—which would explain the great reticence in Moscow and Tehran to condemn Türkiye for forcing a regime change in Syria.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov merely says that Russia maintains “contact with the representatives of the forces in charge of the situation in the country, and everything will be decided through dialogue.” Peskov adds meaningfully, “There are no definitive decisions at the moment” as regards the future of the Russian military bases in Syria.

As for Iran, the state media announced on December 16 that its embassy, “which was closed as a result of the recent events in the Arab country, would soon resume its work in Damascus.” Iran’s Ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, said. “Our goal is to resume the activities of the embassy as soon as possible. These people (in Damascus) have expressed their readiness to provide the necessary guarantees for the security of the embassy and its related activities.” Akbari explained: “No one expected these developments to occur at such a pace and in a very short period.”

Fidan also detailed his discussions with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Doha on December 7, which led to their realisation that Assad “was no longer a viable leader for their (Russia and Iran’s) strategic interests”. Fidan added: “We spoke with the Russians and Iranians and told them that the man they had invested in was no longer someone worth investing in. They made one phone call, and that evening Assad was gone.”

“You have brought immense glory to India and have inspired millions of young athletes to pursue their dreams,” Mandaviya was quoted as saying in a media release.

However, not everyone from the team flew back home as PR Sreejesh stayed back in the French capital for the closing ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.

Unsurprisingly, Fidan emphasised Türkiye’s commanding position, referring to the new governing body in Syria as “the committee.” As he put it: “We conveyed messages from our friends to Damascus. No one understands them like we do.” Fidan’s disclosures came after Türkiye’s restoration of diplomatic ties with Damascus and a high-level engagement with the visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Ankara on December 11, followed by a top-secret mission to Damascus by Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin, who met with the interim government’s Prime Minister Muhammed El Besir and HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.

The US state department’s statement after Blinken’s consultations with Fidan highlighted discussions on “strong regional cooperation” between the US and Türkiye, as well as “shared interests in supporting a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned transition to an accountable and inclusive government.”

While the Arab states are traumatised and are taking time to get their act together, the US exploits their sense of insecurity to coax them to reinstate Washington’s leadership role in mediating with the groups in Damascus. The US aims to roll back the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, isolate Tehran and create “strategic depth” for Israel in the region. But the indications are that the Arab states will not put their eggs in the American basket. Clearly, the US is riding several horses. Blinken declared that the US is in direct contact with HTS (despite al-Jolani carrying a ransom of $10 million on account of his role in killing American citizens during his salad days with the ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq.) Following the US’s lead, the European Union also reached out to the HTS. Evidently, the Western powers have no qualms of conscience or morality about using an al-Qaeda outfit for geopolitical purposes—to advance Israeli interests and roll back Russian and Iranian influence in Syria.

The Biden Administration has embarked on a cunning geopolitical ploy, albeit a lame duck itself, creating traps for the incoming Trump administration on the one hand and on the other hand, hampering the Kremlin, which has been exhausted by the war in Ukraine. For Donald Trump, who promised to end the US’ ‘forever wars’, Syria amounts to a minefield.

The Arab states are upset and are exploring how to cool the situation in Syria and use their leverage to push all parties toward stable, durable settlements.

Trump faces two unwelcome political choices: either re-engage in West Asia, from where he had pledged to exit, or allow for chaos after having long claimed that the world would be safer with him. There is a third way, theoretically, but it seems difficult to achieve—namely, navigating the complexities of the aggravating crisis without US military involvement. Similarly, the last thing Russian President Vladimir Putin wants at this critical juncture of the Ukraine war is a major escalation in Syria. The Biden Administration draws vicarious pleasure in knowing that the Al-Qaeda takeover in Damascus exposes the limits of Russian power and diminishes the credibility of Putin’s geopolitical moves—although, in reality, this comes with the price tag of empowering Islamist extremists.

The Western approach is cynical and extremely dangerous. It threatens regional stability. The Arab states are upset and are exploring how to cool the situation in Syria and use their leverage to push all parties toward stable, durable settlements. (Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian accompanied by foreign minister Sayyid Abbas Araghchi arrived in Cairo on December 18 in the first presidential visit to Egypt in nearly 11 years for talks with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi)

Iran and the Arab states share a profound concern that the promotion of proxies of a revamped Islamist project like HTS to gain ground in Syria poses an existential threat to the stability of the Arab states, especially in the Gulf, undermining national authorities and weakening national institutions, fuelling sectarian conflict, upsetting the nascent regional equilibriums pivoted on Saudi-Iranian reconciliation and deepening social divisions.

Having Al-Qaeda as a Neighbour

Moscow was never really confident about the durability of the Assad regime and the sustainability or rationality of any Russian overstretch in its support of the regime. Russia had stayed away from the Iran-led Axis of Resistance and all but acquiesced with the Israeli air strikes to curb the Iranian/ Hezbollah presence in Syria.

Moscow is well aware that Assad presided over a decadent, hopelessly corrupt and cruel regime. Russia repeatedly cautioned Assad about the imperative to restructure the armed forces, reform the system and reconcile with Erdogan. But Assad didn’t pay heed. However, what stands in good stead for Russia is that Türkiye also has its hands full and alienating Moscow will not be in its interests. Trust Erdogan and Putin to tango again after a decent interval. No one understands Erdogan’s complex personality better than Putin. The geopolitics of the region leaves no alternative for them except tactical cooperation. As long as the US and Israel remain aligned with militant Syrian Kurdish separatists, Ankara may even stand to gain from the Russian presence. A confrontation is in neither Türkiye’snor Russia’s interests.

The Israel Hayom newspaper has reported that Syrian Kurds have sought military support from Israel to counter the Turkish offensive. The Kurds are mortally afraid of a possible withdrawal of the 1,000-strong US military contingent from Syria under Trump’s watch. All in all, the fall of Damascus creates a comfortable environment for supporters of the Caliphate, which is the stated agenda of al-Qaeda and ISIS.

ISIS has stated in its weekly Al-Naba that it does not recognise the HTS-led set-up in Damascus. The operations of ISIS in Syria have been limited so far to sabotage attacks from its hiding places in the desert, but the group may try to take control of a number of areas in Syria.

Israel has jumped into the fray with alacrity with an agenda of expansionism and cannibalisation of Syrian territory, which destroys Syria’s security infrastructure, ruptures Iran’s land route to Lebanon (read Hezbollah) and, most important, potentially creates the space to transfer/relocate the Palestinian population in Gaza and the West Bank—in sum, advance the Greater Israel project.

For the present, the HTS is in no position to challenge Israel. Israel too had been funding and supporting the extremist jihadi groups during the civil war in Syria. However, Erdogan has long dreamed of clearing the Syrian-Turkish border of Kurdish presence. That is going to be a long haul since Kurds control anywhere up to 40 per cent of Syrian territory and they get support from the US and Israel. Unsurprisingly, Türkiye resents the Kurdish-US-Israeli nexus and Tel Aviv’s brazen projection of power into Syria.

In the final analysis, therefore, time only can tell whether Israel’s triumphalism over its land grab in Syria is realistic. The hard reality is that Israel now has al-Qaeda as a next-door neighbour. And a little-known fact is that HTS leader Jolani himself is a native of the Golan Heights

(Views expressed are personal)

MK Bhadrakumar is a former ambassador to Türkiyekawbet

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